I have some experience with both tech and investing, and I recently wrote an article about AI where I shared this perspective: like other technologies, AI will follow a predictable path — from early competitive advantage to widespread standard.
If that’s true, markets will self-regulate: everyone will eventually use similar tools for the same purposes. And as we see today, those who already have more capital tend to extract the most value from the system. Technology, in that sense, doesn’t level the playing field — it often just raises the stakes.
Even now, market manipulation doesn’t require AI. The news cycle, social media “expert” opinions, financial magazines, and subscription-based services all influence investor sentiment — and fake accounts and coordinated messaging have likely been used for years to manipulate perception and pricing.
So I’m skeptical that AI will truly help the average person compete on equal terms with those who already hold more money, power, and influence.
But here's a more radical thought: what if AI does reshape the economy so dramatically that ideas like Universal Basic Income become widespread realities? If money stops being a problem for the majority of people on Earth, could we finally move past the speculative frenzy of today’s markets?
I actually don't think AI will help the average person. My scenario is pertaining to emergent behavior and complexities of AI agents in markets. How it will change herding behaviors etc., and what regulators should be thinking through. I don't see the average retail investor as a clear winner.
I actually think incumbents that collect proprietary data could still have the advantage. However, if markets are in chaos (aka., constant GameStop scenarios but unpredictably) then its hard for any clear sustained strategies to be effective
Well said: "The greatest challenge isn’t just the sophistication of these agents. It’s the emergent behavior that will arise from the interplay between humans, AI tools, and more advanced autonomous systems." - and the (lack of) regulation, coordination, or even at large, making a 'safe' or amenable space for the agents to exist 'harmoniously' in. Some of the efforts for 'Agent app stores' sound interesting this way, but that's perhaps a more mezzo than macro level.
yes! exactly! And so my point is that agents could commit this fraud in such a subtle, undetectable way over longer time horizons that it evades our current tools for detection. And they dont have to make up stories, they can create bot accounts to amplify existing stories that make sow doubt in companies.
Love that you drew from the Gamestop scenario. Herding behavior is a real potential risk, as you highlight. Putting my cybersecurity hat on, I can also see how training data poisoning (perhaps by nation states, political motives or just organized crime for hire) can lead to herding behavior, leading to massive unexpected social realities - not just in the financial and economic sectors, but expanding into greater social realities (thinking Cambridge Analytica type of scenario).
How good will AI get on the stock market including crypto trades? If it can beat the S&P that's already good.
While it's clear generative AI boosts Monopoly capitalism and increases wealth and other kinds of inequality, compounding wealth on autopilot will be available to some soon.
I have some experience with both tech and investing, and I recently wrote an article about AI where I shared this perspective: like other technologies, AI will follow a predictable path — from early competitive advantage to widespread standard.
If that’s true, markets will self-regulate: everyone will eventually use similar tools for the same purposes. And as we see today, those who already have more capital tend to extract the most value from the system. Technology, in that sense, doesn’t level the playing field — it often just raises the stakes.
Even now, market manipulation doesn’t require AI. The news cycle, social media “expert” opinions, financial magazines, and subscription-based services all influence investor sentiment — and fake accounts and coordinated messaging have likely been used for years to manipulate perception and pricing.
So I’m skeptical that AI will truly help the average person compete on equal terms with those who already hold more money, power, and influence.
But here's a more radical thought: what if AI does reshape the economy so dramatically that ideas like Universal Basic Income become widespread realities? If money stops being a problem for the majority of people on Earth, could we finally move past the speculative frenzy of today’s markets?
That’s a future I’d be curious to see.
I actually don't think AI will help the average person. My scenario is pertaining to emergent behavior and complexities of AI agents in markets. How it will change herding behaviors etc., and what regulators should be thinking through. I don't see the average retail investor as a clear winner.
I actually think incumbents that collect proprietary data could still have the advantage. However, if markets are in chaos (aka., constant GameStop scenarios but unpredictably) then its hard for any clear sustained strategies to be effective
Well said: "The greatest challenge isn’t just the sophistication of these agents. It’s the emergent behavior that will arise from the interplay between humans, AI tools, and more advanced autonomous systems." - and the (lack of) regulation, coordination, or even at large, making a 'safe' or amenable space for the agents to exist 'harmoniously' in. Some of the efforts for 'Agent app stores' sound interesting this way, but that's perhaps a more mezzo than macro level.
Unequal balance between the less competitive players
Isn’t the use of agents to achieve a desired outcome that is unnatural, market manipulation or securities fraud?
yes! exactly! And so my point is that agents could commit this fraud in such a subtle, undetectable way over longer time horizons that it evades our current tools for detection. And they dont have to make up stories, they can create bot accounts to amplify existing stories that make sow doubt in companies.
Love that you drew from the Gamestop scenario. Herding behavior is a real potential risk, as you highlight. Putting my cybersecurity hat on, I can also see how training data poisoning (perhaps by nation states, political motives or just organized crime for hire) can lead to herding behavior, leading to massive unexpected social realities - not just in the financial and economic sectors, but expanding into greater social realities (thinking Cambridge Analytica type of scenario).
It certainly is an unknowable future (for now).
How good will AI get on the stock market including crypto trades? If it can beat the S&P that's already good.
While it's clear generative AI boosts Monopoly capitalism and increases wealth and other kinds of inequality, compounding wealth on autopilot will be available to some soon.